Players Change, The Game Remains The Same
Uncertainty is back in the market due to the recent developments in the Mideast. Egypt is one of America’s most important partners in the Mideast and the story has played through several news cycles....
View ArticleClik here to view.
Dow Jones Transportation Index Divergence Resolved
I wrote about the possible divergence occurring between the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index last week. Today the divergence in the charts resolved itself when the...
View ArticlePresident’s Day Sneak-Attack
Every time there’s a US banking holiday the rest of the world tries to light a fire under the markets. Here is a snapshot of what we’re seeing today: gold and crude futures rising, and S&P 500...
View ArticleAnatomy Of A Holiday Panic: Dubai vs Libya
Last weekend I wrote about the fact that the Libyan conflict could lead to accelerated selling. Since Mideast countries have made a small cottage industry of riling world markets over US bank holidays...
View ArticleClik here to view.
CSCO – Cisco, Turning Around A Tankership Revisited
I warned about the CSCO earnings shuffle a few weeks ago. Cisco has made a habit of missing earnings. The CEO also has a penchant for drama and over-enunciating the headwinds associated with their...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Dear Nikkei Officials: Keep The Exchange Open
Mark my words, this market will be skinned alive if there is no way for world’s third largest economy to exchange risk in a somewhat orderly manner. Japanese individuals and corporations will look to...
View ArticleThe Art Of Timing
I don’t watch CNBC during the trading day. Sometimes I feel a little bit out-of-touch with what’s going on in the financial media, but that’s what StockTwits is for. The guys in my stream are always...
View ArticleClik here to view.
QE2 Ends June 30: What Happens Next?
*Federal Reserve Total Assets We’re starting to see some rumblings in the media about the end of QE2. The scheduled completion of the program is June 30, 2011. Two distinct narratives are emerging:...
View ArticleWhen Mergers Attack — NSM Edition
Merger Monday proved that it’s still very much in effect. Texas Instruments (TXN) is acquiring National Semiconductor (NSM) for $6.5 Billion in an all-cash transaction. Much has already been written...
View ArticleMarket Composition
Among the large cap companies I follow we still have leadership from Basic Materials (CVX, OXY, COP, FCX) , Healthcare/Pharma (MDT, MRK, BMY) and Technology (TXN). The drag is coming from anything...
View ArticleValue vs Growth on Watch for Breakout
The spread between large cap value and large cap growth has been coiling for several months. The wedge has been tightening in this relationship since correlations all went to 1 in August. This spread...
View ArticleUsing Historical Bond Returns to Measure Market Skew
It’s impossible to know exactly when the market will turn. The best you can do is catch a good chunk of the trend. The indicator below does a great job of keeping you on the right side of the big...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Extreme Optimism is the Sentiment as of Now
Chart courtesy of SentimenTrader.com. This study plots the “dumb money confidence,” the “smart money confidence” and the spread between the two. The theory is that smart money will be a buyer during...
View ArticleThe Return of Two-Way Trading
There are times when the market only moves in one direction and you’ve got to do your best to not get run over. Then there are times when the market is in flux and there are opportunities at every...
View ArticleClik here to view.
A Message from the Dow Transports
The Dow Transportation Index has been underperforming the S&P 500 for the entire month of February. That alone didn’t concern me because of the overall trend and bullish backdrop. What concerns...
View ArticleChoose Your Own Adventure: SPX 2013
From a previous post on fractals: Fractals create self-similar, repeating, non-symmetrical patterns and shapes. Markets appear self-similar over multiple timeframes the same way that a fern looks...
View ArticleMAMO Update
Quick update on the macro oscillator I introduced here. Still bullish, but losing momentum. It takes a lot to turn this indicator. I believe that the personality of the market has changed in the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Fundamental Top-Down Macro for the Brain Damaged
Fundamentals have nothing to do with the market, brah. Interior decorating is rock hard science compared to economics practiced by amateurs. - Antonin Scalia (never actually said this) Macro economic...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Fishing Lodge Indicator
If you want to lose credibility the best way to so is to quote a cause and effect that has no basis in reality. Something nice and anecdotal with little to no prior precedent. Better still, a...
View ArticleMacro that matters
The market has lost momentum, prices are trending down, and sentiment is terrible. Lots of people are writing about the many warning signs. Depending on your time horizon and strategy it might make...
View Article
